Publications
Left over or opting out? Squeeze, mismatch and surplus in Chinese marriage markets
with Pauline Rossi, Journal of Development Economics, forthcoming.
Abstract: Marriage is declining in China. Among singles, the probability of marrying in 2019 was half that of marrying in 1999. We estimate a Choo and Siow model using census data to quantify the relative roles of changes in population structure and changes in marital surplus, i.e., the value of marriage. We find that the increase in the supply of educated people explains half of the decline, partly due to a mismatch between highly-educated women and less-educated men. The deterioration of female-to-male ratio, known as marriage squeeze, explains an additional 13% for men. The decrease in surplus accounts for the remainder.
Aid Fragmentation and Corruption
with Travers Barclay Child and Austin Wright, Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
Abstract: Aid fragmentation---the simultaneous operation of multiple development agencies in one setting---has long raised concerns about coordination challenges and opportunities for corruption. Leveraging unique data on project delivery in Afghanistan, we present the first microlevel empirical analysis of aid fragmentation. We find that aid delivered by a single donor can significantly reduce corruption. Projects delivered under conditions of aid fragmentation, by contrast, can facilitate corruption. We find evidence for a theoretical mechanism linking infrastructure and physical goods with waste and leakage. Our results clarify the policy losses tied to fragmentation, yielding insights for combating misappropriation of aid.
[Working Paper] [media: VoxDev]
Spillovers in Childbearing Decisions and Fertility Transitions: Evidence from China
with Pauline Rossi, Journal of the European Economic Association, 2024, 22(1), 161–199.
Abstract: This article uses China’s family planning policies to quantify and explain spillovers in fertility decisions. We test whether ethnic minorities decreased their fertility in response to the policies, although only the majority ethnic group, the Han Chinese, were subject to birth quotas. We exploit the policy rollout and variation in pre-policy age-specific fertility levels to construct a measure of the negative shock to Han fertility. Combining this measure with variation in the local share of Han, we estimate that a woman gives birth to 0.63 fewer children if the average completed fertility among her peers is exogenously reduced by one child. The fertility response of minorities is driven by cultural proximity with the Han and by higher educational investments, suggesting that spillovers operate through both social and economic channels. These results provide evidence that social multipliers can accelerate fertility transitions.
[Working Paper] [media: VoxChina; The Economist]
Beyond Boiling: The Effect of In Utero Exposure to Treated Tap Water on Childhood Health
with Li Li, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2023, 102814.
Abstract: We study the effect of in utero exposure to treated tap water on childhood health in rural China, where boiling water to inactivate disease-causing microorganisms before drinking is common. We exploit the gradual roll-out of a rural drinking water program that supplies treated tap water to households. Besides microorganisms, the treatment removes chemical pollutants. We find that exposure to treated tap water in utero increases height at ages 1–11 by 0.3 standard deviations. We also explore the impact on other health outcomes at different stages of childhood and the incidence of severe diseases by cause. Improving health by age one and inducing more health investments from parents are two possible channels. Results highlight the importance of removing chemical pollutants from drinking water to protect fetuses from environmental insults.
Early Life Exposure to Tap Water and the Development of Cognitive Skills
with Yvonne Jie Chen and Li Li, Journal of Human Resources, 2022, 57(6), 2113-2149.
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of early life exposure to tap water on children’s cognitive skills in later life. We exploit the variation in the timing of tap water connection across communities imposed by a major drinking water safety program in rural China. Using data extracted from the China Family Panel Studies, we find that one additional year of exposure to tap water in early life increases cognitive test score at ages 10-15 by 0.132 standard deviations. Event study estimates confirm that the beneficial impacts are concentrated in early life.
[Working Paper][Online Appendix] [media: THE PAPER 澎湃新闻 (Chinese); JHR Research Highlights]
Education and Gender Role Attitudes
with Huichao Du and Liqiu Zhao, Journal of Population Economics, 2021, 34, 475–513.
Abstract: This paper examines whether education plays an important role in shaping individuals’ gender role attitudes. We exploit the exogenous variation in temporal and geographical impacts of the 1986 Compulsory Education Law in China, which reduces the inequality in compulsory school attendance across regions. Using the data from the China General Social Survey, we find that the extra schooling induced by the compulsory schooling reform leads to more egalitarian gender role attitudes. Education’s liberalizing effect is concentrated among females and urban residents. However, the education’s impacts on gender-equal behavior are much weaker than that on attitudes. Finally, we discuss the potential channels through which education shapes individuals’ gender-role attitudes.
Working Papers
Land Rights Insecurity and the Persistent Misallocation of Talent
with Zichen Deng and Yunyi Jin.
Abstract: We study how insecure land rights—an institutional barrier to mobility that is pervasive in developing countries—lead to persistent misallocation of talent by distorting educational investment. Using a Roy (1951) model of occupational choice with endogenous schooling, we show that land insecurity discourages individuals with high non-agricultural talent from investing in education and transitioning out of agriculture. Stronger land security incentivizes talented young people to acquire more schooling and enter skill-intensive occupations, whereas older individuals with comparable talent but predetermined educational levels remain trapped in farming. We test these predictions using the staggered rollout of China’s Rural Land Contracting Law as a quasi-experimental improvement in land security. Relative to older cohorts with fixed education, the reform induced younger cohorts to attain more schooling and subsequently move from low-skill rural jobs to high-skill urban occupations. These effects are strongest among individuals with a comparative advantage in non-agricultural work. Together, the findings reveal a previously overlooked channel through which mobility frictions perpetuate talent misallocation—by shaping educational decisions long before individuals enter the labor market.
Draft available upon request
The Gendered Effects of Childhood Television Exposure on Educational Aspirations and Attainment
with Yvonne Jie Chen and Li Li.
Abstract: We examine the effect of childhood exposure to cable or satellite television (CSTV) on the educational aspirations and attainment of adolescents in rural China. Our findings reveal a striking gender difference in the impact of CSTV: one additional year of CSTV exposure during ages 6--10 increases boys' probability of aspiring to a college degree by 8 percentage points while decreasing it by the same magnitude for girls. This effect on aspiration eventually raises boys’ college attendance while having minimal impact on girls. Further analysis suggests that the gender-stereotypical content of television programs may explain the observed gender difference.
Family planning policies, heterogeneous child quantity-quality trade-off, and intergenerational Mobility
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18961
Abstract: This article establishes a causal link between family planning policies and intergenerational mobility, arising from heterogeneity in the trade-off between child quantity and quality. Using variations in penalties for unauthorized births under China’s One-Child Policy, I find that the policy reduces the likelihood of having a second child and improves the firstborn's health. However, education increases only among children of high-skilled workers, which further increases their income. In contrast, children of farmers or low-skilled workers accumulate more land or housing assets. The increase in policy-induced penalties accounts for one-fourth of the increases in intergenerational correlations in income between the 1969-1978 and 1979-1988 cohorts. Mechanism analysis suggests that the heterogeneous responses are driven by different perceived returns and costs of education associated with paternal occupations. The results underscore the importance of considering heterogeneity in parental responses when evaluating family planning policies.
[media: VoxEU]
Pre-PhD Publications
Effect of Reliable Electricity on Health Facilities, Health Information and Health Services Utilization: Evidence from Rural Gujarat, India
with Yvonne Jie Chen and Namrata Chindarkar, Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition, 2019, 38(7).
Education on the Cheap: The Long-run Effects of a Free Compulsory Education Reform in Rural China
with Li Li and Liqiu Zhao, Journal of Comparative Economics, 2017, 45, 544–562.